Assessment of the effects of water regimes
2000 Base Version 1 executed at a 2-mile resolution (2000B1 (2 Mile))
versus
Natural System Model Version 4.6 Final (NSM_v4.6F)
upon the American Alligator Species Index
by
Mark R. Palmer and Louis J. Gross
The Institute for Environmental Modeling
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Knoxville, Tennessee 37996-1610
(Copyright University of Tennessee - 2003)
Hydropattern effects on breeding potential of the American Alligator are a function of water
depth, areal extent and length of periods of inundation, and timing of
water flows in areas that provide suitable breeding habitat for alligators.
The ATLSS American Alligator Breeding Potential Index (BPI) Model uses SFWMM restoration
scenario hydrology output to make spatially explicit estimates of the
occurrence of water in the depth ranges that restrict and preclude alligator
nesting and egg incubation success and express depth effects as changes in
the spatial pattern of breeding potential over the model area. In this
evaluation, output from the Natural Systems Model (NSMv4.6F) is compared to
that of the SFWMM baseline scenario 2000B1.
In order to better understand the following assessment, one should first print
a copy of the Indicator Regions ,
the ATLSS Reporting Units ,
the ranking of models years for mean water depth (ponding) and mean rainfall
as a graph, and the
the table .
Assessment of Comparison Maps
Wet Years (As measured by ponding)
The wet years of
1995 ,
1970 , and
1969 ,
NSM Version 4.6F indicates generally higher American Alligator SESI values in
WCA 3A-South, Rotenberg-Holeyland, North and South Taylor Slough while
having generally lower values in WCA-3B and NE Shark River Slough.
Dry Years (As measured by ponding)
The dry years of
1989 ,
1990 , and
1971 ,
NSM Version 4.6F indicates generally higher American Alligator SESI values in
southern portions of ENP and the South Strands of BCNP while
having generally lower values in WCA-1 and most of WCA-3A.
Average Years (As measured by ponding)
The average ponding years of
1972 ,
1991 ,
1984 ,
NSM Version 4.6F indicates generally higher American Alligator SESI values in
the South Strands of BCNP, NE Shark River Slough, and 10 Mile Marl while
having generally lower values in WCA-1, most of WCA-3A South and North.
Average of All Years
The Average of All Years
NSM Version 4.6F indicates higher average American Alligator SESI values in
almost all of the model area with the exception of WCA-1 and WCA-3B. Little or
no difference is seen in the Interior Pinelands and adjacent regions.
Assessment of Line Graphs For Indicator Regions
LNWR
The time-series for the LNWR
indicator regions show higher American Alligator SESI values for 2000B1 (2 Mile).
Ridge & Slough (north)
The time-series for the Ridge & Slough (north)
indicator regions show few differences in American Alligator SESI values for the NSM Version 4.6F compared to 2000B1 (2 Mile).
Ridge & Slough (south)
The time-series for the Ridge & Slough (south)
indicator regions show few differences in American Alligator SESI values for the NSM Version 4.6F in most years.
Marl Prairie
The time-series for the Marl Prairie
indicator regions show slightly higher American Alligator SESI values for NSM Version 4.6F where differences
are seen.
Corbett WMA
The time-series for the Corbett WMA
indicator regions show no American Alligator SESI breeding potential for the two scenarios.
Rotenberger WMA
The time-series for the Rotenberger WMA
indicator regions show distinctly higher American Alligator SESI values for NSM Version 4.6F except for three years
where 2000B1 (2 Mile) has slightly higher values.
Holey Land WMA
The time-series for the Holey Land WMA
indicator regions show no discernable trend in differences of American Alligator SESI values.
Big Cypress National Preserve
The time-series for the Big Cypress National Preserve
indicator regions show basically equivalent American Alligator SESI values for the two scenarios.
Go to
ATLSS Initial CERP Update Home Page
Copyright © 2003 ATLSS UTK/TIEM
